Return Period of Characteristic Discharges from the Comparison between Partial Duration and Annual Series, Application to the Walloon Rivers (Belgium)

Abstract

The determination of the return period of frequent discharges requires the definition of flood peak thresholds. Unlike daily data, the volume of data to be processed with the generalization of hourly data loggers or even with an even finer temporal resolution quickly becomes too large to be managed by hand. We therefore propose an algorithm that automatically extracts flood characteristics to compute partial series return periods based on hourly series of flow rates. Thresholds are defined through robust analysis of field observation-independent data to obtain five independent flood peaks per year in order to bypass the 1-year limit of annual series. Peak over thresholds were analyzed using both Gumbel’s graphical method and his ordinary moments method. Hydrological analyses exhibit the value in the convergence point revealed by this dual method for floods with a recurrence interval around 5 years. Pebble-bedded rivers on impervious substratum (Ardenne rivers) presented an average bankfull discharge return period of around 0.6 years. In the absence of field observation, the authors have defined the bankfull discharge as the Q0.625 computed with partial series. Annual series computations allow Q100 discharge determination and extreme floods recurrence interval estimation. A comparison of data from the literature allowed for the confirmation of the value of Myer’s rating at 18, and this value was used to predict extreme floods based on the area of the watershed.