The Analysis of Carbon Emission’s Characteristics and Dynamic Evolution Based on the Strategy of Unbalanced Regional Economic Development in China

Abstract

Analyzing the evolution law of carbon emissions is particularly important for the designation of policies on energy conservation and emission reduction. Based on the regional division of China, this paper uses a spatial panel model to find the causes of the differences in carbon emission, and the non-parametric model, logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) model and the extended STIRPAT model to analyze the relevant influencing factors in detail. From the studies in this paper, there come the following conclusions: (1) The environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) in the eastern region resembles the national EKC, demonstrating the same “N” pattern. However, the “upside-down U” pattern in the middle and western regions not only confirms the assumption of EKC in some Chinese regions but also demonstrates the effective restraint in high energy consumption and high emission levels when narrowing down the gaps between the central and western regions and the eastern regions. (2) In addition, good education can effectively suppress the increase in carbon emission, and every 1% increase in the proportion of educated people (college and above) results in emission reduction, respectively, by 0.22%, 0.51% and 0.44% in the eastern, central and western regions of China. (3) Significantly, the effect of tertiary industry structure on carbon emissions is positive, reflecting the trend of “deterioration” of China’s industrial structure over long time scales. This study functions positively in understanding the evolutionary pattern of regional carbon emissions and proposing differentiated policies on emission reduction.