System Dynamics Simulation and Influencing Factors of the Interaction between Urbanization and Eco-Environment in Hebei Province, China

Abstract

Searching for an urbanization development model that is suitable for the eco-environment can provide important references for regional sustainable development. By comprehensively using models such as system dynamics (SD), distance coordination coupling degree, symbiosis degree, and grey correlation degree, the interaction between urbanization and eco-environment in Hebei Province from 2020 to 2035 was dynamically simulated based on the historical data from 2000 to 2019. In addition, the key bidirectional influence factors of urbanization and eco-environment were identified. The entire process analysis from model construction, scenario simulation, and preferred scenarios to factor identification was achieved. The results showed the following. (1) The constructed SD model was reliable and effective, and could be used to simulate future strategies. (2) Three evaluation methods could effectively reveal the advantages and disadvantages of the phased scenario schemes during the simulation period, and the obtained results had strong consistency. The urbanization priority development scenario was more suitable for short-term and medium-term planning, while the friendly development scenario was more suitable for the entire simulation period. (3) Five indicators of urbanization and seven indicators of the eco-environment were highly relevant to the evaluation levels of the eco-environment and urbanization, respectively. The study extended the application of the symbiosis theory and the evaluation methods of scenario simulation schemes for urbanization and eco-environment systems.