Application of a Lifestyle-Based Score to Predict Cardiovascular Risk in African Americans: The Jackson Heart Study

Abstract

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) primordial prevention tools applicable to diverse populations are scarce. Our aim was to assess the performance of a lifestyle-based tool to estimate CVD risk in an African American population. The Jackson Heart Study is a prospective cohort including 5306 African American participants in Jackson, Mississippi (2000–2004), with a mean follow up of 12 years. The Healthy Heart Score is a lifestyle-based CVD risk prediction model based on nine components: body mass index (BMI), physical activity, smoking, and a 5-component diet score. Gender-specific beta coefficients from its derivation cohorts were used to assess the performance of the Healthy Heart Score. Model discrimination was assessed using Harrell’s C-Index for survival data and time dependent Area Under the Curve. Model calibration was evaluated through calibration plots. A total of 189 CVD events occurred. The Healthy Heart Score showed high-moderate discrimination for CVD events (C-statistic 0.75 [95% CI, 0.71–0.78]) but with little improvement over the age-only model. Both the age-only and Healthy Heart Score models had better performance in participants without diabetes at baseline and showed good calibration. In African Americans, the Healthy Heart Score does not improve prediction of mid-life CVD events beyond what is obtained by age alone.