Novel Approach for Identification of Basic and Effective Reproduction Numbers Illustrated with COVID-19
Author:
Marinov Tchavdar T.1, Marinova Rossitza S.23ORCID, Marinov Radoslav T.4, Shelby Nicci1
Affiliation:
1. Department of Natural Sciences, Southern University at New Orleans, 6801 Press Drive, New Orleans, LA 70126, USA 2. Department of Mathematical & Physical Sciences, Concordia University of Edmonton, 7128 Ada Boulevard, Edmonton, AB T5B 4E4, Canada 3. Department Computer Science, Varna Free University, 9007 Varna, Bulgaria 4. Rescale, 33 New Montgomery Street, Suite 950, San Francisco, CA 94105, USA
Abstract
This paper presents a novel numerical technique for the identification of effective and basic reproduction numbers, Re and R0, for long-term epidemics, using an inverse problem approach. The method is based on the direct integration of the SIR (Susceptible–Infectious–Removed) system of ordinary differential equations and the least-squares method. Simulations were conducted using official COVID-19 data for the United States and Canada, and for the states of Georgia, Texas, and Louisiana, for a period of two years and ten months. The results demonstrate the applicability of the method in simulating the dynamics of the epidemic and reveal an interesting relationship between the number of currently infectious individuals and the effective reproduction number, which is a useful tool for predicting the epidemic dynamics. For all conducted experiments, the results show that the local maximum (and minimum) values of the time-dependent effective reproduction number occur approximately three weeks before the local maximum (and minimum) values of the number of currently infectious individuals. This work provides a novel and efficient approach for the identification of time-dependent epidemics parameters.
Funder
Grant LA Dept. of Health, Office of Public Health, Bureau of Community Preparedness of the State of LA Concordia University of Edmonton
Subject
Virology,Infectious Diseases
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