Risk Evaluation of Ice Flood Disaster in the Upper Heilongjiang River Based on Catastrophe Theory
Author:
Li Yu1, Han Hongwei12, Sun Yonghe3, Xiao Xingtao3, Liao Houchu3, Liu Xingchao1, Wang Enliang12
Affiliation:
1. School of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin 150030, China 2. Heilongjiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Water Conservancy Engineering in Cold Region, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin 150030, China 3. Heilongjiang Provincial Hydrology and Water Resources Center, Harbin 150001, China
Abstract
The ice flood phenomenon frequently occurs in frigid locations of high latitude and high altitude, which triggers ice dam or ice jam flooding thus endangering personal and property safety. Hence, a scientific risk evaluation with enough consideration of each factor is a basic and necessary requirement for preventing ice flood disaster risks. This study establishes a risk evaluation system for ice flood disasters based on the catastrophe theory and utilizes the Pearson correlation coefficient to screen underlying indicators to evaluate the risk of ice flood in the upper Heilongjiang River region. Considering the correlation between different indicators, a hierarchical cluster analysis is invoked to simplify the indicator set and to select typical years. The results of the evaluation system indicate that the catastrophe membership values in the Mohe, Tahe, and Huma regions from 2000 to 2020 ranged from 0.86 to 0.93. Based on the membership values and the actual disaster situations, a four-level classification of risk ratings is conducted. The comparison between the results obtained from the catastrophe theory evaluation method and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method reveals similar risk levels, which verifies the effectiveness and practicality of the catastrophe theory applied to the ice flood risk evaluation and presents a novel method for the study of ice floods.
Funder
Major Scientific and Technological Projects of the Ministry of Water Resources of China Natural Science Foundation of Heilongjiang Province of China Project to Support the Development of Young Talent by Northeast Agricultural University
Subject
Water Science and Technology,Aquatic Science,Geography, Planning and Development,Biochemistry
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