Assessing the Impact of Urban Morphologies on Waterlogging Risk Using a Spatial Weight Naive Bayes Model and Local Climate Zones Classification

Abstract

Rapid urbanization has altered the natural surface properties and spatial patterns, increasing the risk of urban waterlogging. Assessing the probability of urban waterlogging risk is crucial for preventing and mitigating the environmental risks associated with urban waterlogging. This study aims to evaluate the impact of different urban spatial morphologies on the probability of urban waterlogging risk. The proposed assessment framework was demonstrated in Guangzhou, a high-density city in China. Firstly, a spatial weight naive Bayes model was employed to map the probability of waterlogging risk in Guangzhou. Secondly, the World Urban Database and Access Portal Tools (WUDAPT)-based method was used to create a local climate zone (LCZ) map of Guangzhou. Then, the range of waterlogging risk and the proportion of risk levels were analyzed across different LCZs. Finally, the Theil index was used to measure the disparity in waterlogging risk exposure among urban residents. The results indicate that 16.29% of the area in Guangzhou is at risk of waterlogging. Specifically, 13.06% of the area in LCZ 2 is classified as high risk, followed by LCZ 1, LCZ 8, and LCZ 10, with area proportions of 11.42%, 8.37%, and 6.26%, respectively. Liwan District has the highest flood exposure level at 0.975, followed by Haizhu, Yuexiu, and Baiyun. The overall disparity in waterlogging exposure in Guangzhou is 0.30, with the difference between administrative districts (0.13) being smaller than the difference within the administrative districts (0.17). These findings provide valuable insights for future flood risk mitigation and help in adopting effective risk reduction strategies at urban planning level.