Survival Prediction in Diabetic Foot Ulcers: A Machine Learning Approach

Abstract

Our paper proposes the first machine learning model to predict long-term mortality in patients with diabetic foot ulcers (DFUs). The study includes 635 patients with DFUs admitted from January 2007 to December 2017, with a follow-up period extending until December 2020. Two multilayer perceptron (MLP) classifiers were developed. The first MLP model was developed to predict whether the patient will die in the next 5 years after the current hospitalization. The second MLP classifier was built to estimate whether the patient will die in the following 10 years. The 5-year and 10-year mortality models were based on the following predictors: age; the University of Texas Staging System for Diabetic Foot Ulcers score; the Wagner–Meggitt classification; the Saint Elian Wound Score System; glomerular filtration rate; topographic aspects and the depth of the lesion; and the presence of foot ischemia, cardiovascular disease, diabetic nephropathy, and hypertension. The accuracy for the 5-year and 10-year models was 0.7717 and 0.7598, respectively (for the training set) and 0.7244 and 0.7087, respectively (for the test set). Our findings indicate that it is possible to predict with good accuracy the risk of death in patients with DFUs using non-invasive and low-cost predictors.