Spatio-Temporal Changes and Influencing Factors of Meteorological Dry-Wet in Northern China during 1960–2019

Abstract

In northern China, precipitation fluctuates greatly and drought occurs frequently, which mark some of the important threats to agricultural and animal husbandry production. Understanding the meteorological dry-wet change and the evolution law of drought events in northern China has guiding significance for regional disaster prevention and mitigation. Based on the standardized precipitation index (SPI), this paper explored the spatio-temporal evolution of meteorological dry-wet in northern China. Our results showed that arid area (AA) and semi-arid area (SAA) in the west showed a trend of wetting at inter-annual and seasonal scales, while humid area (HA) and semi-humid area (SHA) in the east showed a different dry-wet changing trend at different seasons under the background of inter-annual drying. AA and HA showed obvious “reverse fluctuation” characteristics in summer. The drought frequency (DF) and drought intensity (DI) were high in the east and low in the west, and there was no significant difference in drought duration (DD) and drought severity (DS) between east and west. The DD, DS and DI of AA and SAA showed a decreasing trend, while the DD and DS of HA and SHA showed a slight increasing trend, and the DS decreased. In summer and autumn, the main influencing factors of drying in the east and wetting in the west were PNA, WP, PDO and TP1, and the fluctuations of NAO-SOI, NAO-AMO and PNA-NINO3.4 jointly determined the characteristics of SPI3 reverse fluctuations of HA and AA in summer.