A Machine Learning Method to Estimate Reference Evapotranspiration Using Soil Moisture Sensors

Abstract

One of the most important applications of remote imaging systems in agriculture, with the greatest impact on global sustainability, is the determination of optimal crop irrigation. The methodology proposed by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) is based on estimating crop evapotranspiration (ETc), which is done by computing the reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo) multiplied by a crop coefficient (Kc). Some previous works proposed methods to compute Kc using remote crop images. The present research aims at complementing these systems, estimating ETo with the use of soil moisture sensors. A crop of kikuyu grass (Pennisetum clandestinum) was used as the reference crop. Four frequency-domain reflectometry sensors were installed, gathering moisture information during the study period from May 2015 to September 2016. Different machine learning regression algorithms were analyzed for the estimation of ETo using moisture and climatic data. The values were compared with respect to the ETo computed in an agroclimatic station using the Penman–Monteith method. The best method was the randomizable filtered classifier technique, based on the K* algorithm. This model achieved a correlation coefficient, R, of 0.9936, with a root-mean-squared error of 0.183 mm/day and 6.52% mean relative error; the second-best model used artificial neural networks, with an R of 0.9470 and 11% relative error. Thus, this new methodology allows obtaining accurate and cost-efficient prediction models for ETo, as well as for the water balance of the crops.