Spatial–Temporal Evolution and Prediction of Habitat Quality in Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region Based on Land Use Change

Abstract

In order to solve the problem of habitat fragmentation in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region and realize the sustainable use of land, based on remote sensing data from 2010 to 2020, this paper uses GIS and the CA–Markov model to predict the land use structure in 2030, and uses the InVEST model to quantitatively analyze the changes in habitat quality in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region from 2010 to 2030. The results indicate that (1) from 2010 to 2020, the area of construction land increased significantly, mainly from cultivated land, woodland and grassland; the proportion of cultivated land decreased by 7.2%. It was predicted that by 2030, the area of construction land will continue to expand, accounting for 19.6%. According to the results of land use dynamic degree, the conversion speed between land types in 2010–2015 was higher than that in 2015–2020. (2) The average habitat quality indexes of the study area in 2010, 2015, 2020 and 2030 were 0.57, 0.56, 0.55 and 0.52, respectively, and the habitat quality level was moderate and continued to decline. The habitat center of gravity moved in the north, from Fengning Manchu Autonomous County to the junction of Fengning Manchu Autonomous County and Longhua County, and then moved to the Mentougou District of Beijing. Therefore, in order to amendthe continuous decline in habitat quality, scientific measures should be taken according to local conditions to promote the improvement of habitat quality and the rational use of land.