Quantitative Assessment of the Entry through Mechanical Transport in Aircraft of Rift Valley Fever Virus-Infected Mosquitoes into Previously Unaffected Areas

Abstract

(1): Rift Valley Fever (RVF) is a zoonotic disease of significant international health concern and considered as an emerging risk to Europe, where no RVF outbreaks in humans or animals have been reported so far. (2): Using a stochastic approach, we estimated the risk of RVF virus (RVFV) introduction during the period of May to October (the period when mosquito populations, including RVFV potential vectors, are present in European countries), into previously unaffected areas (e.g., United Kingdom, UK) via virus-carrying vectors traveling in commercial aircraft from RVF-affected countries (e.g., East Africa); (3): On average N = 68 (95% CI: 0–337), RVF-virus-infected mosquitoes are estimated to be mechanically transported by planes (with N = 0 as most likely), in direct flights from RVF-affected East African countries to the UK, between May and October. This estimate is considered as low but not negligible. The model developed should be easily scaled up to other European countries by amending appropriately country-specific variables (e.g., number of flights between countries) in order to map the areas/airports of higher risk and inform risk management per country accordingly and to adopt risk-mitigation measures.