Future Land Use and Habitat Quality Dynamics: Spatio-Temporal Analysis and Simulation in the Taihu Lake Basin

Abstract

Land use change profoundly impacts habitat quality, necessitating an understanding of historical and future trends for effective regional planning and ecological protection, particularly in ecologically sensitive areas. This study examines the Taihu Lake Basin (TLB), a region undergoing significant land use changes and exhibiting considerable ecological vulnerability. Utilizing the InVEST model (v3.14.2), we analyzed the dynamics of land use and habitat quality in the TLB from 2000 to 2020. We subsequently employed the PLUS model (v1.40) to predict future land use and habitat quality under various scenarios. Our key findings include the following: (1) From 2000 to 2020, TLB experienced a 97.62% increase in construction land, alongside significant reductions in cultivated land and forestland. (2) Population density, precipitation, DEM, and temperature were identified as the main drivers of land use expansion in TLB. (3) Habitat quality declined by 11.20% over the study period, exhibiting spatial disparities including higher quality in the southwest and central regions and lower quality in the east and north. (4) Scenarios prioritizing urban development led to substantial construction land expansion and reduced habitat quality, whereas scenarios emphasizing ecological protection effectively mitigated habitat fragmentation. This study highlights the critical need to integrate ecological protection into regional planning to balance economic development with environmental sustainability. The findings underscore the importance of prioritizing ecological conservation in land use policies to maintain habitat quality and promote sustainable development in the TLB. These insights are valuable for guiding future land use planning and ecological management in similarly sensitive regions.