An Assessment of the Production Potential and Food Self-Sufficiency of Ukraine against the Background of the European Union and Poland

Abstract

Rapidly changing external conditions, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, which are pure crisis phenomena, not only determine the geopolitical and geoeconomic situation in the global markets but also cause structural changes in individual countries. Under these conditions, the level of food self-sufficiency becomes particularly important, as it is one of the factors determining the food security of any country. The aim of this research is to assess Ukraine’s food self-sufficiency compared to the European Union and Poland. The self-sufficiency ratio (SSR) index was used to assess food self-sufficiency. This is the ratio of the volume of production of the most important products of plant and animal origin to the volume of domestic consumption. Domestic consumption was defined as the volume of domestic production plus the volume of imports minus the volume of exports, and it also included changes in domestic stock levels. The surveyed time frame is 2019–2021. The analyzed data were taken from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, FAOSTAT, USDA, and Statistics Poland. A comparative analysis of self-sufficiency for the main agri-food sectors of Ukraine, the EU, and Poland showed significant differences. Taking into account the production potential and food self-sufficiency indicators of Ukraine, Ukraine’s possible accession to the EU can be expected to have a major impact on the EU’s supply and demand situation, as it may pose a threat to many EU agri-food sectors.