Historical Analysis and Prediction of the Magnitude and Scale of Natural Disasters Globally

Abstract

The aim of this study was to conduct a geospatial analysis of natural disasters occurring worldwide between 1960 and 2018. A total of 9962 disasters were considered, covering 39,953 locations. These phenomena were analysed in terms of frequency and number to determine changes over time and predict future trends. The data included information such as location and year of occurrence. The following natural disasters were included in the analyses: droughts, earthquakes, extreme temperatures, floods, landslides, earth mass movements, storms, and volcanic activity. The analyses were carried out across three dimensions: by continent, by number of disasters in relation to population, and in relation to the area of the continents concerned. An additional objective was to visualise the distribution of disasters by affected countries. This aspect shows the incidence of disasters by year during the period under study, with a 20-year forecast for the coming years.