Risk Assessment of Lack of Water Supply Using the Hydraulic Model of the Water Supply

Abstract

Modern management of water supply systems is based on a preventive strategy consisting of the prevention of failures and crisis situations. Water pipe failures resulting in a lack of water supply for a long period pose a threat to the water consumers safety. The aim of the work was to present the methodology and develop a risk map of lack of water supply to consumers. The article presents a failures simulation of the main pipes transporting treated water from the water treatment plant to the city carried out using the EPANET 2.0. software. The simulation results made it possible to determine the consequences of failures by determining the number of inhabitants (consumers) affected with lack of water supply as a result of failure of the main pipes near the water treatment plant WTP which, together with the failure rate, were used to prepare risk maps of lack of water supply. The developed method was presented on the water supply network located in Central and Eastern Europe. It was found that the highest risk of lack of water supply is related to the failure of the M3 main pipe, which transports water to the eastern and north-eastern parts of the city. It is recommended to modernize the M3 main pipe, which will reduce the number of failures resulting in a lack of water supply.