Prediction for the Sluice Deformation Based on SOA-LSTM-Weighted Markov Model

Abstract

Increasingly, deformation prediction has become an essential research topic in sluice safety control, which requires significant attention. However, there is still a lack of practical and efficient prediction modeling for sluice deformation. In order to address the limitations in mining the deep features of long-time data series of the traditional statistical model, in this paper, an improved long short-term memory (LSTM) model and weighted Markov model are introduced to predict sluice deformation. In the method, the seagull optimization algorithm (SOA) is utilized to optimize the hyper-parameters of the neural network structure in LSTM primarily to improve the model. Subsequently, the relevant error sequences of the fitting results of SOA-LSTM model are classified and the Markovity of the state sequence is examined. Then, the autocorrelation coefficients and weights of each order are calculated and the weighted and maximum probability values are applied to predict the future random state of the sluice deformation. Afterwards, the prediction model of sluice deformation on the SOA-LSTM-weighted Markov model is proposed. Ultimately, the presented model is used to predict the settlement characteristics of an actual sluice project in China. The analysis results demonstrate that the proposed model possesses the highest values of R2 and the smallest values of RMSE and absolute relative errors for the monitoring data of four monitoring points. Consequently, it concluded that the proposed method shows better prediction ability and accuracy than the SOA-LSTM model and the stepwise regression model.