A Data-Driven Approach to the Unified Evaluation of Conventional and Unconventional Hydrocarbon Resources: Application to Low-Mature to Mature Source Rocks in the Liaohe Western Depression

Abstract

Hydrocarbon potential evaluation is a high priority in oil/gas exploration which is significantly influenced by evaluation methods and subjective cognition. With the aim of quantitatively establishing a hydrocarbon generation and expulsion (HGE) model of source rocks, a data-driven approach is proposed based on abundant and readily available Rock-Eval/total organic carbon content (TOC)/vitrinite reflectance (VRo) datasets. This approach takes into account the original hydrocarbon generation potential (GPIo) and the loss of TOC. Hydrocarbon generation simulation was also adopted in this study. This data-driven method was applied to the Lower Paleogene Shahejie Formation (Es4), which has three sets of superior source rocks (average thickness > 250 m, TOC > 3%). The GPIo of the Es4 low-maturity source rock was 600 mg HC/g TOC. The initial maturity values of hydrocarbon generation and expulsion were 0.36% and 0.46%, respectively. The Gaosheng sub-member of the Es4 source rock had the largest amount of hydrocarbon generation but a limited amount of hydrocarbon expulsion, implying a favorable exploration of shale oil resources. By contrast, the values of the conventional, unconventional tight, and shale oil resource potentials of the Niuxintuo sub-member were 3.20 × 107, 7.70 × 107, and 5.93 × 108 t, respectively, indicating good prospects for tight oil and shale oil exploration. A comparison between the previous method and the data-driven method showed considerable differences in the restoration of GPIo and TOC, and both had their own limitations. This data-driven approach provides a quick and valid source rock evaluation method and can greatly enhance the accuracy of resource assessment.