Quantitative Assessment of Impact of Climate Change and Human Activities on Streamflow Changes Using an Improved Three-Parameter Monthly Water Balance Model

Abstract

Understanding the impact of climate change and human activities on the hydrological cycle of any watershed can provide a scientific basis for regional water resource planning, flood management, and disaster mitigation. An improved three-parameter hydrological model (CM) based on monthly water balance using an exponential equation to depict the distribution of groundwater storage capacity was developed and evaluated. The model uses Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation (APHRODITE) rainfall data as input, with the Zhejiang Province as the case application, and the effects of climate change and human activities on streamflow changes were assessed by separating environmental variables in this study. The results indicate that APHRODITE data has excellent monthly accuracy, with a mean correlation coefficient (CC) of more than 0.96 and an average absolute percentage bias (Pbais) of less than 5%. The three models are relatively close in their ability to simulate high flows, but the CM simulated low flow is better than the other two models. Positive and negative Pbais phenomena occur in the CM model in each catchment, and absolute levels are regulated by 5%. Furthermore, the CM model’s average Nash efficiency coefficient (NSE) is greater than 0.9, indicating that it can correctly fulfill the water balance. The results are more consistent throughout multiple catchments in each watershed using Budyko-based and hydrological model technique to evaluate the influence of climate change and human activities on streamflow. Climate change dominated streamflow variations in 18 of the 21 catchments in Zhejiang Province, whereas human activities dominated the rest. The findings of the study will be used to influence the management, development, and usage of water resources in the watershed.