Assessment of Water Resource Utilization and Analysis of Driving Factors in Zhoushan City Based on Water Footprint Theory and LMDI Model

Abstract

Accurately analyzing the water system’s status in a region is crucial for mitigating water resource constraints on the development of island areas. This study centers on Zhoushan, an archipelago city, and employs the water footprint theory (WFT) and the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) model to scrutinize the evolution of water footprints from 2010 to 2020. It also dissects the impacts of economic, technological, and population factors on these changes. The findings are as follows: From 2010 to 2020, Zhoushan’s total water footprint has remained relatively stable, but its structure is imbalanced, indicating an unhealthy development. The agricultural water footprint dominates, though its proportion has steadily declined from 64% to 28%, while the imported water footprint has significantly increased from 2% to 29%. The skewed distribution of internal and external water consumption contributes to this imbalance, with internal water use accounting for a staggering 86.43%. The ecological security of water resources appears bleak, with average water scarcity and pressure indices reaching 0.42 and 0.41, respectively, indicating an overloaded state of water resources. Despite a 144.50% growth in water footprint efficiency from 2010 to 2020, the average water resource sustainability index merely stands at 0.531, and its sustainability remains precarious. The LMDI model results unveil that technological factors are the primary negative driving factors, contributing to 47.06% of the changes in Zhoushan’s water resource utilization. Conversely, economic and population factors play positive roles, contributing 42.29% and 10.65%, respectively. Therefore, in the course of development, there should be a focus on promoting water-saving tec-nologies, and continuously enhancing the efficiency of water resource utilization. Simultaneously, attention should be given to the development of the tertiary sector and the water resource pressure resulting from the mobile population, aiming to achieve sustainable water resource utilization and further ensure the ecological security of Zhoushan City.