Global Value Chains Embedding and Carbon Productivity of China’s Manufacturing Industry: Direct Influence, Adjustment Effect, and Heterogeneity Analysis

Abstract

In the context of the deepening division of labour in global value chains (GVC) and the goal of “double carbon”, it is important to promote China’s manufacturing industry to break away from the unfavourable situation of “big but not strong” so as to achieve low-carbon transformation and value chain upgrading. Based on the panel data of China’s manufacturing industry from 2006 to 2018, this paper adopts a threshold regression model to analyse the marginal impact of GVC embedding position on carbon productivity. It also comprehensively explores the moderating effects of R&D investment, environmental regulation, industrial structure upgrading, and industrial digitisation on the impact of GVC embedding on carbon productivity in three aspects: forward GVC participation, backward GVC participation, and GVC embedding position. The research shows that forward and backward GVC participation have negative direct effects on carbon productivity in China’s manufacturing sector, but the results of the heterogeneity analysis show that both forward and backward GVC participation are positively associated with carbon productivity in low- and medium-technology manufacturing industries. Improving the GVC embedding position will promote the improvement of carbon productivity, and the promotion effect will be increased and then decreased. Both R&D investment and industrial structure upgrading have strengthened the impact of GVC embedding. Environmental regulation weakens the inhibitory effect of backward GVC participation on carbon productivity, while industry digitisation has a negative moderating effect. Further heterogeneity analysis found that forward simple GVC participation was positively related to carbon productivity. The findings of this paper provide a theoretical and practical foundation for analysing the impact mechanism of GVC embeddedness on carbon productivity in China’s manufacturing industries. It is conducive to promoting China’s manufacturing industries to realise low-carbon transformation and climb up to the high end of the GVC, and it provides certain policy insights for the realization of the goals of “carbon peaking” and “carbon neutrality”.