Affiliation:
1. School of Marxism Studies, Xi’an Polytechnic University, Xi’an 710048, China
2. School of Computer Science, Xi’an Polytechnic University, Xi’an 710048, China
Abstract
The frequent turnover of college graduates is a key factor leading to the frictional unemployment and structural unemployment of youth, which are important research fields concerned with pedagogy, sociology, and management; however, there is little research on the prediction of college graduates’ turnover. Therefore, this study investigated the turnover status of 17,268 college graduates from 52 universities in China, constructed and optimized a random forest model for predicting the turnover of college graduates, and analyzed the influencing mechanism of college graduates’ turnover and the importance of influencing factors. The enhanced random forest model could deal with the unbalanced data and has a higher prediction accuracy as well as stronger generalization ability in predicting the turnover of college graduates. Individual background variables, job characteristic variables, and work environment variables are all important factors influencing whether college graduates resign or not. The top five factors that affect the turnover of college graduates by more than 10% are income level, job satisfaction degree, job opportunities, and job matching degree. The conclusion of this study is conducive to improving the accuracy of turnover prediction, systematically exploring the influencing factors of college graduates’ turnover, and effectively guaranteeing the overall stability of youth employment.
Funder
Natural Science Basic Research Program of Shaanxi
Undergraduate Education and Teaching Reform Key Projects of Xi’an Polytechnic University
Reference36 articles.
1. Can High-quality Social Development Ease Unemployment Anxiety among Young Workers;Liu;Contemp. Youth Res.,2024
2. International Labor Organization (2020). Global Employment Trends for Youth 2020: Technology and the Future of Jobs, International Labor Organization.
3. Intra-year employment instability and economic well-being among urban households: Mitigating effects of the social safety net;Cai;Child. Youth Serv. Rev.,2023
4. The role of placement instability on employment and educational outcomes among adolescents leaving care;Goyette;Child. Youth Serv. Rev.,2021
5. Intermediate linkages in the relationship between job satisfaction and employee turnover;Mobley;J. Appl. Psychol.,1977