Salinity Modeling Using Deep Learning with Data Augmentation and Transfer Learning

Abstract

Salinity management in estuarine systems is crucial for developing effective water-management strategies to maintain compliance and understand the impact of salt intrusion on water quality and availability. Understanding the temporal and spatial variations of salinity is a keystone of salinity-management practices. Process-based numerical models have been traditionally used to estimate the variations in salinity in estuarine environments. Advances in data-driven models (e.g., deep learning models) make them effective and efficient alternatives to process-based models. However, a discernible research gap exists in applying these advanced techniques to salinity modeling. The current study seeks to address this gap by exploring the innovative use of deep learning with data augmentation and transfer learning in salinity modeling, exemplified at 23 key salinity locations in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta which is the hub of the water-supply system of California. Historical, simulated (via a hydrodynamics and water quality model), and perturbed (to create a range of hydroclimatic and operational scenarios for data-augmentation purposes) flow, and salinity data are used to train a baseline multi-layer perceptron (MLP) and a deep learning Residual Long-Short-Term Memory (Res-LSTM) network. Four other deep learning models including LSTM, Residual Network (ResNet), Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), and Residual GRU (Res-GRU) are also examined. Results indicate that models pre-trained using augmented data demonstrate improved performance over models trained from scratch using only historical data (e.g., median Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency increased from around 0.5 to above 0.9). Moreover, the five deep learning models further boost the salinity estimation performance in comparison with the baseline MLP model, though the performance of the latter is acceptable. The models trained using augmented data are then (a) used to develop a web-based Salinity Dashboard (Dashboard) tool that allows the users (including those with no machine learning background) to quickly screen multiple management scenarios by altering inputs and visualizing the resulting salinity simulations interactively, and (b) transferred and adapted to estimate observed salinity. The study shows that transfer learning results more accurately replicate the observations compared to their counterparts from models trained from scratch without knowledge learned and transferred from augmented data (e.g., median Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency increased from around 0.4 to above 0.9). Overall, the study illustrates that deep learning models, particularly when pre-trained using augmented data, are promising supplements to existing process-based models in estuarine salinity modeling, while the Dashboard enables user engagement with those pre-trained models to inform decision-making efficiently and effectively.