Research on Transformer Condition Prediction Based on Gas Prediction and Fault Diagnosis

Abstract

As an indispensable part of the power system, transformers need to be continuously monitored to detect anomalies or faults in a timely manner to avoid serious damage to the power grid and society. This article proposes a combined model for transformer state prediction, which integrates gas concentration prediction and fault diagnosis models. First, based on the historical monitoring data, each characteristic gas sequence is subjected to one optimal variational mode decomposition (OVMD) and one complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN). The decomposed sub-sequences are input into a bi-directional long short-term memory network (Bi-LSTM) optimized by the sparrow search algorithm (SSA) for prediction, and the predicted value of each sub-sequence was then superimposed to be the predicted value of the characteristic gas. We input the predicted values of each gas into the improved sparrow search algorithm-optimized support vector machine (ISSA-SVM) model, which can output the final fault type. After the construction of the combined model of state prediction is completed, this paper uses three actual cases to test the model, and at the same time, it uses the traditional fault diagnosis methods to judge the cases and compare these methods with the model in this paper. The results show that the combined model of transformer state prediction constructed in this paper is able to predict the type of transformer faults in the future effectively, and it is of great significance for the practical application of transformer fault type diagnosis.