Unveiling Climate–Land Use and Land Cover Interactions on the Kerch Peninsula Using Structural Equation Modeling

Abstract

This paper examines the effects of climatic factors, specifically temperature and precipitation, on land use and land cover (LULC) on the Kerch Peninsula using structural equation modeling (SEM). The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was used as a mediator in the model to accurately assess the impact of climate change on vegetation and subsequent LULC dynamics. The results indicate that temperature exerts a significant negative influence on LULC in the early periods, inducing stress on vegetation and leading to land degradation. However, this influence diminishes over time, possibly due to ecosystem adaptation and the implementation of resilient land management practices. In contrast, the impact of precipitation on LULC, which is initially minimal, increases significantly, highlighting the need for improved water resource management and adaptation measures to mitigate the negative effects of excessive moisture. The NDVI plays a crucial mediating role, reflecting the health and density of vegetation in response to climatic variables. An analysis of lagged effects shows that both precipitation and temperature exert delayed effects on LULC, underscoring the complexity of water dynamics and ecosystem responses to climatic conditions. These results have important practical implications for land resource management and climate adaptation strategies. Understanding the nuanced interactions between climatic factors and LULC can inform the development of resilient agricultural systems, optimized water management practices, and effective land use planning. Future research should focus on refining models to incorporate nonlinear interactions, improving data accuracy, and expanding the geographic scope to generalize findings. This study highlights the importance of continuous monitoring and adaptive management to develop sustainable land management practices that can withstand the challenges of climate change.