Precipitation Estimation Using FY-4B/AGRI Satellite Data Based on Random Forest

Author:

Huang Yang12,Bao Yansong12,Petropoulos George P.3ORCID,Lu Qifeng4,Huo Yanfeng5,Wang Fu4

Affiliation:

1. Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, CMA Key Laboratory for Aerosol-Cloud-Precipitation, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China

2. School of Atmospheric Physics, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China

3. Department of Geography, Harokopio University of Athens, EI. Venizelou 70, Kallithea, 17671 Athens, Greece

4. Earth System Modeling and Prediction Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China

5. Anhui Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Hefei 230031, China

Abstract

Precipitation is the basic component of the Earth’s water cycle. Obtaining high-resolution and high-precision precipitation data is of great significance. This paper establishes a precipitation retrieval model based on a random forest classification and regression model during the day and at night with FY-4B/AGRI Level1 data on China from July to August 2022. To evaluate the retrieval effect of the model, the GPM IMERG product is used as a reference, and the retrieval results are compared against those of the FY-4B/AGRI operational precipitation product. In addition, the retrieval results are analyzed according to different underlying surfaces. The results showed that compared with the FY-4B/AGRI operational precipitation product, the retrieval model can better identify precipitation and capture precipitation areas of light rain, moderate rain, heavy rain and torrential rain. Among them, the probability of detection (POD) of the day model increased from 0.328 to 0.680, and the equitable threat score (ETS) increased from 0.252 to 0.432. The POD of the night model increased from 0.337 to 0.639, and the ETS score increased from 0.239 to 0.369. Meanwhile, the precipitation estimation accuracy of the day model increased by 38.98% and that of the night model increased by 40.85%. Our results also showed that due to the surface uniformity of the ocean, the model can identify precipitation better on the ocean than on the land. Our findings also indicated that for the different underlying surfaces of the land, there is no significant difference in each evaluation index of the model. This is a strong argument for the universal applicability of the model. Notably, the results showed that, especially for more vegetated areas and areas covered by water, the model is capable of estimating precipitation. In conclusion, the precipitation retrieval model that is proposed herein can better determine precipitation regions and estimate precipitation intensities compared with the FY-4B/AGRI operational precipitation product. It can provide some reference value for future precipitation retrieval research on FY-4B/AGRI.

Funder

Natural Science Foundation of China

Fengyun Application Pioneering Project

Fengyun Application Pioneering Project (2022) Xu Jianmin Meteorological Satellite Innovation Center Project

Water Science and Technology Project of Jiangsu Province

Shanghai Aerospace Science and Technology Innovation Foundation

Publisher

MDPI AG

Reference49 articles.

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4. Richard, F. (2023, July 20). Quantitative Precipitation Estimation in the National Weather Service, Hydrology Laboratory, Office of Hydrologic Development, National Weather Service, 3 April 2023, Available online: https://hdsc.nws.noaa.gov/pub/hdsc/data/papers/articles/hrl/papers/wsr88d/MPE_workshop_NWSTC_lecture1_121305.pdf.

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