Understanding the Decision-Making Process for Hurricane Evacuation Orders: A Case Study of Florida County Emergency Managers

Abstract

This study aims to provide a more robust understanding of the elements involved in emergency managers’ decision-making processes when issuing hurricane evacuation orders. We used the principles of the theory of bounded rationality to formulate research questions for understanding decision-making during uncertain times (i.e., hurricane evacuation orders). We then conducted 20 semi-structured interviews with county emergency managers in Florida to understand how this decision-making process unfolds. Results showed that emergency managers consider two primary factors in their decision-making process, including fixed and random factors. Fixed factors refer to elements and information that are known to emergency managers and do not change drastically from one hurricane to another (e.g., homeless population, poor housing structure). Random factors, on the other hand, refer to elements involved in hurricane decision-making that cannot be precisely predicted (e.g., storm surge). Random and fixed factors then blend in with other elements (planning, collaboration, and information assessment) during the response phase of an emergency. The interplay among these elements can ultimately influence emergency managers’ hurricane evacuation decisions. Although the existing research has made significant strides in studying many aspects of emergency managers’ decision-making processes, there have been limited discussions about the various factors that emergency managers consider for issuing hurricane evacuation orders. Our study highlights the broader implications of information interpretation, situational uncertainty, and collaboration for emergency management organizations responsible for making decisions about hurricane evacuation orders. Using the theory of bounded rationality, this study dissects both fixed and random factors influencing evacuations. In doing so, it has the potential to assist emergency managers in developing more sustainable hurricane evacuation plans in the future.