Temporal Mortality Trends Attributable to Stroke in South Asia: An Age–Period–Cohort Analysis

Abstract

South Asia contributes the most to stroke mortality worldwide. This study aimed to determine the long-term trends in stroke mortality across four South Asian countries and its associations with age, period, and birth cohort. In 2019, nearly one million stroke deaths occurred across South Asia, and the associated age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) was 80.2 per 100,000. Between 1990 and 2019, India had the largest decrease in the ASMR (−35.8%) across the four South Asian countries. While Pakistan had the smallest decrease in the ASMR (−7.6%), an increase was detected among males aged 15 to 34 years and females aged 15 to 19 years. Despite a 22.8% decrease in the ASMR, Bangladesh had the highest ASMR across the four South Asian countries. Nepal reported a witness increase in the stroke ASMR after 2006. Improved period and cohort effects on stroke mortality were generally indicated across the analyzed countries, except for recent-period effects in males from Nepal and cohort effects from those born after the 1970s in Pakistan. Stroke mortality has decreased in the four South Asian countries over the past 30 years, but potentially unfavorable period and cohort effects have emerged in males in Nepal and both sexes in Pakistan. Governmental and societal efforts are needed to maintain decreasing trends in stroke mortality.