Risk Prediction Performance of the Thai Cardiovascular Risk Score for Mild Cognitive Impairment in Adults with Metabolic Risk Factors in Thailand

Abstract

Individuals with metabolic risks are at high risk of cognitive impairment. We aimed to investigate whether the Thai Cardiovascular Risk (TCVR) score can be used to predict mild cognitive impairment (MCI) in Thai adults with metabolic risks. The study was conducted using secondary data of patients with metabolic risks from Maharaj Nakorn Chiang Mai Hospital. MCI was indicated by an MoCA score of less than 25. Six different TCVR models were used with various combinations of ten different variables for predicting the risk of MCI. The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AuROC) and Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness of fit tests were used for determining discriminative performance and model calibration. The sensitivity of the discriminative performance was further evaluated by stratifying by age and gender. From a total of 421 participants, 348 participants had MCI. All six TCVR models showed a similar AuROC, varying between 0.58 and 0.61. The anthropometric-based model showed the best risk prediction performance in the older age group (AuROC 0.69). The laboratory-based model provided the highest discriminative performance for the younger age group (AuROC 0.60). There is potential for the development of an MCI risk model based on values from routine cardiovascular risk assessments among patients with metabolic risks.