Smart Grid Data Management in a Heterogeneous Environment with a Hybrid Load Forecasting Model

Abstract

The power consumption model can be represented in multiple dimensions, and it is proliferating to include structured and unstructured data. Dealing with such heterogeneous data and analyzing it in real-time is an ongoing challenge in the energy sector. Moreover, converting these data into useful information remains an open research area. This study focuses on modeling realistic and efficient power consumption data management in the heterogeneous environment for the Iraq energy sector and suggested a novel hybrid load forecasting model. The proposed system is named the Power Consumption Information and Analytics System (PIAS), which can perform various roles such as data acquisition from mechanical and smart meters, data federation, data management, data visualization, data analysis, and load forecasting. The proposed system has a four-tier framework (Data, Analytics, Application, and Presentation). Each layer is discussed in detail in this study to overcome the anticipated challenges. Furthermore, this study discusses the proposed system by applying two case studies. The first case study discusses power consumption data management, while the second introduces a novel hybrid load forecasting model using Fuzzy C-Means clustering, Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), and Gradient Boosted Tree Learner. The dataset used in this forecasting is based on a 1-year duration dated 1 January 2019 to 31 December 2019, on an hourly basis (365 * 24) for the Baghdad governorate. The results showed high accuracy in load forecasting with improved error rates (MAPE, MAE, and RMSE) achievements in comparison with other evaluated models such as standalone ARIMA and Gradient Boosted Trees methods.