Stability Prediction Model of Roadway Surrounding Rock Based on Concept Lattice Reduction and a Symmetric Alpha Stable Distribution Probability Neural Network

Abstract

To combat the uncertainty of the multiple factors affecting roadway surrounding rock stability, five initial indexes are selected for reduction according to concept lattice theory: rock quality designation (RQD), uniaxial compressive strength (Rc), the integrity coefficient of rock mass, groundwater seepage, and joint condition. The aim of this study is to compute correlation coefficients among various indexes and verify the effectiveness of lattice reduction. Alpha stable distribution is used to replace the commonly used Gauss distribution in probabilistic neural networks. A prediction model for the stability of roadway surrounding rock is then established based on a concept lattice and improved probabilistic neural network. 100 groups of training sample data are plugged into this model one by one to examine its rationality. The established model is employed for engineering application prediction with ten indiscriminate sample groups from the Jianlinshan mining area of the Daye iron mine, revealing accuracy of up to 90%. This demonstrates that our prediction model based on a concept lattice and improved probabilistic neural network has high reliability and applicability.