Sustainability in the Banking Sector: A Predictive Model for the European Banking Union in the Aftermath of the Financial Crisis

Abstract

Given the central role of banks in financial stability and the recent impact of their insufficient capitalization, this article focuses on finding determinants of their solvency through financial variables. The study considers the European Banking Union framework and the results of the latter stress test exercises, using a panel of the 45 banks based in 15 European countries that were stress tested in 2014, 2016 and 2018. This paper models bank soundness proxied by the stressed tier capital 1 ratio by means of financial indicators representing a CAMELS (Capital, Assets quality, Management, Earnings, Liquidity and Sensitivity to market risk) approach as well as global systemically important financial institutions (G-SIFIs) additional requirements. The model also specifies a dummy covariate referred to the disclosure of corporate social responsibility (CSR) reports, adopting a comprehensive sustainability scheme. The research period starts with the European Banking Union and includes the three exercises conducted since then. We find that financial sustainability is positively correlated with higher capitalization, earnings and liquid assets, while poor quality assets (high non-performing loans) and inefficiency impact negatively on bank soundness. Moreover, it considers the year-scenario interaction either as a fixed or a random effect. The results support capital and liquidity regulation and highlight factors that reinforce banking soundness. They also reveal a positive connection between CSR and banking solvency.