Estimating Type 2 Diabetes Prevalence: A Model of Drug Consumption Data

Abstract

Observational, cross-sectional prevalence studies are costly and time-consuming. The development of indirect methods estimating prevalence used to obtain faster, less-expensive, and more robust results would be an advantage for several healthcare applications. This study aimed to use the drug dispensing data from community pharmacies to estimate the prevalence of Type 2 Diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in the Portuguese population. A cross-sectional study was conducted using a database of dispensed medicines with an indication for Diabetes mellitus in 2018 and 2021, stratified by geographic region. The methodology was based on a sequential method of acquiring prevalence estimates obtained through exposure to medicines using the daily doses defined per thousand inhabitants per day and adjusted to the rate of adherence to therapy, prescription patterns, and concomitance of antidiabetic drugs. The estimated overall T2DM prevalence in 2018 was 13.9%, and it was 14.2% for 2021. The results show the increased consumption of antidiabetic drugs, with fixed-dose combination antidiabetics and new antidiabetics being particularly important in 2021. This work allowed for the development of a model to obtain the estimated prevalence of T2DM based on drug consumption, using a simple, fast, and robust method that is in line with the available evidence. However, with the recent expanding indications for new antidiabetics, the inclusion of further data in the model needs to be studied.