Spatio-Temporal Trend of Past and Future Extreme Wave Climates in the Gulf of Guinea Driven by Climate Change

Abstract

This study assessed the extremes of wave conditions for past (1979–2005) and future (2026–2045 and 2081–2100) time slices in the Gulf of Guinea (GoG). The ensemble produced from eight General Circulation Models under different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) was subjected to linear regression analysis and Mann–Kendal test for their trends and significance, respectively. Results showed an increase in the extreme of significant wave height (Hs) and mean wave period (Tm) between 1979–2005, 2026–2045, and 2081–2100 with few exceptions. The average values of annual and seasonal Hs and Tm range from 1.26–1.62 m and 10.37 s–10.86 s, respectively, for 1979–2005. These Hs values are projected to increase by 0.1 m (0.05 m) to 1.72 m (1.67 m) and the Tm will increase by 0.29 s (0.24 s) to 11.15 s (11.10 s) by the end of the century (mid-century) time slices, respectively. The mean wave direction (Dm) (201.89°–206.27°) showed an anticlockwise shift (−29.2 × 10−3 degrees per year) for 1979–2005 which is projected to become more southwesterly with an increase up to 2.2° (0.5°) by end (mid) century in 2100 (2045), respectively. Future work will be on the impacts of changing wave on longshore sediment transport along the GoG.