The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Volume of Fuel Supplies to EU Countries

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic is undoubtedly a destructive factor, strongly affecting the economic fields. From the perspective of the countries affected by the pandemic, almost all sectors of the economy saw declines in economic indicators. First, the lockdown and its social consequences contributed to this. The increasing time perspective since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic implies increasingly more studies analyzing its impact on various economic spheres. The aim of the research is to determine the difference in the level of fuel supplies between a pandemic situation and a situation where a pandemic would not occur. We assumed that the pandemic is a determinant of the decline in fuel supplies. The subjects of the analysis were the following fuels: kerosene-type jet fuel, gas oil and diesel oil, motor gasoline, and oil products. The countries of the European Union were analyzed. Monthly data from 2015–2021 provided by Eurostat were used for the analyses. The forecasts for 2020–2021 were determined using the exponential smoothing method. The assumption was shown to be accurate in the case of kerosene-type jet fuel, gas oil, and diesel oil. In this case, there was a clear drop in the level of supplies. The analysis of forecasts shows that if it were not for the COVID-19 pandemic, in the years 2020–2021, in accordance with the forecasts obtained, approximately 31,495 thousand tons of kerosene-type jet fuel and 11,396 thousand tons of gas oil and diesel oil would have been additionally supplied to the EU countries. For oil products, supply volumes also decreased, but unlike previously mentioned fuels, supply levels had not recovered to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2021. On the other hand, the forecast of deliveries indicates the volume of 95,683 thousand tons of oil products.