Species Distribution Modeling of the Breeding Site Distribution and Conservation Gaps of Lesser White-Fronted Goose in Siberia under Climate Change

Abstract

Climate change has become an important cause of the loss of bird habitat and changes in bird migration and reproduction. The lesser white-fronted goose (Anser erythropus) has a wide range of migratory habits and is listed as vulnerable on the IUCN (International Union for Conservation of Nature) Red List. In this study, the distribution of suitable breeding grounds for the lesser white-fronted goose was assessed in Siberia, Russia, using a combination of satellite tracking and climate change data. The characteristics of the distribution of suitable breeding sites under different climate scenarios in the future were predicted using the Maxent model, and protection gaps were assessed. The analysis showed that under the background of future climate change, temperature and precipitation will be the main climatic factors affecting the distribution of breeding grounds, and the area associated with suitable breeding habitats will present a decreasing trend. Areas listed as an optimal habitat only accounted for 3.22% of the protected distribution; however, 1,029,386.341 km2 of optimal habitat was observed outside the protected area. Obtaining species distribution data is important for developing habitat protection in remote areas. The results presented here can provide a basis for developing species-specific habitat management strategies and indicate that additional attention should be focused on protecting open spaces.