Climate Change Risk of Urban Growth and Land Use/Land Cover Conversion: An In-Depth Review of the Recent Research in Iran

Abstract

This research is the first literature review of the past three decades’ studies on the effects of urban development and land use/land cover (LULC) change on Iran’s climate change. For this purpose, 67 articles were found, evaluated, and classified according to the spatial and temporal scale, case study, period, data type, climatic factor, methodology, and meteorological data. Moreover, the reviewed literature methodologies were classified according to the purpose, method, and data source. According to the spatial-scale results, national- and city-level studies had the lowest and highest numbers, respectively. Tehran was the most case studies because Tehran is Iran’s capital and the largest metropolitan city. In terms of the temporal scale, studies predicting future changes (urban development and climate change) included 5% of the total literature. Satellite images were the most applied data in the reviewed literature (58%). Overall, 79% of the studies used temperature-related factors to explain the climatic impacts of urban growth and LULC conversion. Spatial modeling with 52% publications was the most used method, while numerical modeling with 12% studies was the least used method. This review showed broad study gaps in applying numerical models, neighborhood scales, urban micro-scale parameters, and long-term projections forecasts due to rapid urban development in Iran compared to the rest of the world. Therefore, our synthesis will assist researchers in facilitating better design for future studies in Iran and similar countries.