Analysis of Building Parameter Uncertainty in District Heating for Optimal Control of Network Flexibility

Abstract

Network flexibility is the use of the thermal capacity of water that is contained in the district heating network pipes to store energy and shift the heat load in time. Through optimal control, this network flexibility can aid in applications such as peak shaving and operational heat pump optimisation. Yet, optimal control requires perfect predictions and complete knowledge of the system characteristics. In reality, this is not the case and uncertainties exist. To obtain insight into the importance of these uncertainties, this paper studies the influence of imperfect knowledge of building parameters on the optimal network flexibility activation and its performance. It is found that for the optimisation of heat pump operation, building parameter uncertainties do not present large risks. For peak shaving, a more robust result can be achieved by activating more network flexibility than may be required.