Dynamic Evaluation and Regionalization of Maize Drought Vulnerability in the Midwest of Jilin Province

Abstract

Drought vulnerability analysis of crops can build a bridge between hazard factors and disasters and become the main tool to mitigate the impact of drought. However, the resulting disagreement about the appropriate definition of vulnerability is a frequent cause for misunderstanding and a challenge for attempts to develop formal models of vulnerability. This paper presents a generally applicable conceptual framework of vulnerability that combines a nomenclature of vulnerable situations and a terminology of vulnerability based on the definition in the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) report. By selecting 10 indicators, the drought disaster vulnerability assessment model is established from four aspects. In order to verify our model, we present a case study of maize drought vulnerability in the Midwest of the Jilin Province. Our analysis reveals the relationship between each single factor evaluation indicator and drought vulnerability, as well as each indicator to every other indicator. The results show that the drought disturbing degree in different growth periods increases from the central part of the Jilin Province to the western part of the Jilin Province. The sensitivity degree showed an increasing trend from the southeast to the northwest. The places with the strongest self-recovery ability are mainly concentrated in Changchun, Siping, Baicheng, and the other area. The ability to adjust to drought in each growth period is weak and crop yield reduction caused by drought is easy to create. Environmental adaptability is closely related to the social and economic situation every year, so it changes greatly and is flexible. Areas with strong drought vulnerability are mainly concentrated in Baicheng, Tongyu, and Qianguo. The research results can provide a certain basis for risk assessment, early warning, and disaster prevention and mitigation of agricultural drought disaster in the research area.