Development of Machine Learning Models Predicting Estimated Blood Loss during Liver Transplant Surgery

Abstract

The incidence of major hemorrhage and transfusion during liver transplantation has decreased significantly over the past decade, but major bleeding remains a common expectation. Massive intraoperative hemorrhage during liver transplantation can lead to mortality or reoperation. This study aimed to develop machine learning models for the prediction of massive hemorrhage and a scoring system which is applicable to new patients. Data were retrospectively collected from patients aged >18 years who had undergone liver transplantation. These data included emergency information, donor information, demographic data, preoperative laboratory data, the etiology of hepatic failure, the Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) score, surgical history, antiplatelet therapy, continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT), the preoperative dose of vasopressor, and the estimated blood loss (EBL) during surgery. The logistic regression model was one of the best-performing machine learning models. The most important factors for the prediction of massive hemorrhage were the disease etiology, activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT), operation duration, body temperature, MELD score, mean arterial pressure, serum creatinine, and pulse pressure. The risk-scoring system was developed using the odds ratios of these factors from the logistic model. The risk-scoring system showed good prediction performance and calibration (AUROC: 0.775, AUPR: 0.753).