Spatial Shifts in Species Richness in Response to Climate and Environmental Change: An Adaption of the EUROMOVE Model in the Czech Republic

Abstract

Climate change has greatly altered plant habitats, resulting in greater biodiversity loss at different scales. Therefore, it is important to quantify such changes for better monitoring and conservation. In this study, we adapt the EUROMOVE model and its mean stable area indicator (MSAi) to the conditions in the Czech Republic. Our objective was to predict change in species richness from a representative pool of 687 species from 1990 to 2100 under the RCP 8.5 climate scenario, focusing on the current period (2018). Another objective was to assess the effectiveness of the MSAi as a tool for quantifying landscape vulnerability. Our result shows that species habitat expanded between 1990 and 2018, although about 2 per cent of species were lost. The average MSAi of the most favourable highland habitats may decrease from 0.85 to 0.65 by 2100 as >20% of baseline species may be lost. Indicator species of Alnus (alder) and Festuca (fescue), typical of lowland habitats, are among the most vulnerable, already showing a net loss of their current habitat extent. The MSAi can be applied as a comprehensive tool to quantify the impact of climate change on landscape vulnerability as more survey data becomes available.