Electric Vehicle Battery Health Expected at End of Life in the Upcoming Years Based on UK Data

Abstract

Second-life businesses from Electric Vehicle (EV) batteries are gaining attention considering that these batteries are deemed as inappropriate for transport purposes once they reach 80 or 70% of State of Health (SoH). However, the limited number of retired batteries and the trend in battery capacity increase hinder a realistic evaluation of second-life applications. To analyze battery reuse, a closer look at the End of Life (EoL) conditions of these batteries must be taken. This study presents a battery ageing model to estimate the SoH of EV batteries according to their age and mileage. The model is applied to the current retirement characteristics of combustion vehicles to statistically determine the expected SoH at the vehicle EoL. Results indicate that most EVs will reach EoL for reasons other than under-performance. Once retired, most EV batteries will have a SoH higher than 75% within the next 20 years, opening an interesting market for second-life businesses. However, battery reuse is an option that, considering the growing EV market, will rapidly saturate the stationary energy storage demand. Before 2040, most EV batteries will follow streams towards the circular economy, although at some point, they will have to be sent directly to recycling after the vehicular use.