Temporal Analysis of COVID-19 Epidemiological Indicators in a Low-Income Brazilian Context: A Retrospective Analysis in Paraiba State-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

Temporal Analysis of COVID-19 Epidemiological Indicators in a Low-Income Brazilian Context: A Retrospective Analysis in Paraiba State

Published:2023-09-28 Issue:10 Volume:15 Page:2016
ISSN:1999-4915
Container-title:Viruses
language:en
Short-container-title:Viruses

Author:

da Silva Fabiola Ferreira¹,de Abreu Luiz Carlos¹²³⁴^ORCID,Daboin Blanca Elena Guerrero¹³,Morais Tassiane Cristina²⁵^ORCID,Cavalcanti Matheus Paiva Emidio⁴,Bezerra Italla Maria Pinheiro⁵^ORCID,da Silva Célia Guarnieri¹,Figueira Fernando Augusto Marinho dos Santos⁴^ORCID,de Caldas Guedes Viviane Valeria⁶,Perez Riera Andres Ricardo¹

Affiliation:

1. Laboratory of Studies Design and Scientific Writing, Postgraduate Division, University Center FMABC, Santo André 09060-870, SP, Brazil

2. Department of Integrated Health Education, Federal University of Espirito Santo, Vitoria 29075-910, ES, Brazil

3. School of Medicine, University of Limerick, V94 T9PX Limerick, Ireland

4. Post-Graduate Program in Medical Sciences, Faculty of Medicine of the University of São Paulo, São Paulo 01246-903, SP, Brazil

5. School of Sciences of Santa Casa de Misericórdia de Vitória (EMESCAM), Vitoria 29045-402, ES, Brazil

6. Collective Health, Catholic University of Santos, UNISANTOS, Santos 11015-001, SP, Brazil

Abstract

Northeast Brazil is a region with great international tourist potential. Among the states that make up this region, Paraíba stands out due to the presence of vulnerable groups and factors that contribute to adverse outcomes of COVID-19. Therefore, the aim of this study was to analyze the epidemiological data on the incidence, mortality, and case fatality of COVID-19 in Paraíba. An ecological, population-based study was performed, with data extracted from the Brazilian Ministry of Health database. All cases and deaths from COVID-19 from March 2020 to December 2022 were included. The time series was built by applying the Prais–Winsten regression model, and the daily percent change was calculated to analyze the trends. The highest case fatality of the entire period was in April 2020 (7.8%), but in March 2021, the state broke the dismal record of 1248 deaths and the highest mortality rate (30.5 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants). Stationary mortality and case fatality were better in 2022; however, in February 2022, the mortality rate was at levels similar to the same month of the previous year. These results illustrate that COVID-19 is evolving and needs to be constantly monitored.

Funder

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa e Inovação do Espírito Santo

Publisher

MDPI AG

Subject

Virology,Infectious Diseases

Link

https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/15/10/2016/pdf

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