Including Wind Power Generation in Brazil’s Long-Term Optimization Model for Energy Planning

Author:

Medina Maçaira Paula,Monteiro Cyrillo Yasmin,Cyrino Oliveira Fernando,Castro Souza Reinaldo

Abstract

In the past two decades, wind power’s share of the energy mix has grown significantly in Brazil. However, nowadays planning electricity operation in Brazil basically involves evaluating the future conditions of energy supply from hydro and thermal sources over the planning horizon. In this context, wind power sources are not stochastically treated. This work applies an innovative approach that incorporates wind power generation in the Brazilian hydro-thermal dispatch using the analytical method of Frequency & Duration. The proposed approach is applied to Brazil’s Northeast region, covering the planning period from July 2017 to December 2021, using the Markov chain Monte Carlo method to simulate wind power scenarios. The obtained results are more conservative than the one currently used by the National Electric System Operator, since the proposed approach forecasts 1.8% less wind generation, especially during peak periods, and 0.67% more thermal generation. This conservatism can reduce the chance of water reservoir depletion and, also an ineffective dispatch.

Publisher

MDPI AG

Subject

Energy (miscellaneous),Energy Engineering and Power Technology,Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment,Electrical and Electronic Engineering,Control and Optimization,Engineering (miscellaneous)

Reference46 articles.

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