Affiliation:
1. Department of Architecture and Arts, University IUAV of Venice, Dorsoduro 2206, 30123 Venice, Italy
Abstract
Along the roadmap to a Sustainable Real Estate-Scape, energy retrofit campaigns on wide city compartments represent a pivotal task, where the importance of the collaboration between the public and private sectors is crucial. Energy retrofit programs on building assets are subject to multiple uncertainty factors (e.g., climate, energy-economy forecasts, etc.) that act as a primary barrier to investment in this field. This paper aims to discuss risk management techniques to understand better how to deal with this kind of uncertainty. The research specifically addresses the techniques of sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulation, focusing first on the phase of variables selection and their probability definition, including climatic, environmental, energy, economic, financial, and stochastic parameters. In this article, it is suggested to include correlation coefficients in the input variables of risk analysis, preferring the two-dimension Monte Carlo simulation to its simple version, since the results are more reliable when separating aleatory from epistemic uncertainty; thus, the results are more reliable. Moreover, it is seen how a sensitivity analysis based on percentile variations of the inputs provides a more accurate representation of risk if compared to the most common sensitivity analysis based on percentage deviations of the inputs. Conducting a sensitivity analysis using percentile variations gives realistic and reliable results, reflecting the tailored definition of uncertainty around the inputs on the basis of specific market analyses or historical series.
Subject
Energy (miscellaneous),Energy Engineering and Power Technology,Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment,Electrical and Electronic Engineering,Control and Optimization,Engineering (miscellaneous),Building and Construction
Reference80 articles.
1. The challenging business of long-term public-private partnerships: Reflections on local experience;Bloomfield;Public Adm. Rev.,2006
2. How does public participation affect perceptions of public–private partnerships? A citizens’ view on push, pull, and network approaches in PPPs;Boyer;Public Manag. Rev.,2019
3. Decorla-Souza, P., Mayer, J., Jette, A., and Buxbaum, J. (2013). Key considerations for states seeking to implement public-private partnerships for new highway capacity. Transp. Res. Rec., 23–31.
4. Strategic Interaction between the Government and the Private Sector in PPP Projects Incorporating the Fairness Preference;Han;IEEE Access,2020
5. (2011). European Commission Roadmap 2050, European Union.
Cited by
3 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献