Modern Techniques for Flood Susceptibility Estimation across the Deltaic Region (Danube Delta) from the Black Sea’s Romanian Sector

Abstract

Floods have become more and more severe and frequent with global climate change. The present study focuses on the Black Sea’s immediate riparian area over which the Danube Delta extends. Due to the accelerated increase in the severity of floods, the vulnerability of the deltaic areas is augmenting. Therefore, it is very important to adopt measures to mitigate the negative effects of these phenomena. The basis of the measures to limit the negative effects is the activity of identifying areas prone to flooding. Thus, this research paper presents a methodology for estimating flood susceptibility using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Fuzzy-Analytical Hierarchy Process (FAHP) models. To determine the susceptibility to these natural risk phenomena, the following eight flood predictors were taken into account: slope, elevation, altitude above channel, land use, hydrological soil group, lithology distance from the river, and distance from water bodies. Furthermore, the weights that each flood predictor has in terms of determining flood susceptibility were determined through the previously mentioned models. The results revealed that the slope is the most important predictor, followed by elevation, distance from the river, and land use. These weights were used in the GIS environment to evaluate the susceptibility to floods from a spatial point of view. The areas with a high/very high value for these phenomena occupy over 70% of the surface of the Danube Delta.