Study on the Emission Reduction Effect and Spatial Difference of Carbon Emission Trading Policy in China

Abstract

To cope with huge carbon emission pressure, China has implemented a carbon emissions trading pilot policy that aims to provide reasonable suggestions for the smooth operation of the national carbon market. This paper selects the provincial panel data in China from 2005 to 2019 and uses the propensity score matching-difference in difference (PSM-DID) method to evaluate the carbon emission policy’s reduction effect. Based on carbon emissions (CE) and carbon emission intensity (CI), provinces and cities are divided into four regions, and each region is verified by spatial difference analysis. Furthermore, the mediating effects of carbon emission reduction through the dual aspects of technological progress and industry structure are also discussed. Results verified that, (1) under the carbon emission trading policy, regional carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity are both significantly reduced. (2) Technological progress helps to reduce carbon emissions, while industrial structure shows no obvious contribution. (3) The four regions all show ideal emission reduction effects, of which the High CE-High CI region shows the best, but is greatly restricted by techniques. The industrial structure of the High CE-Low CI region needs to be further optimized for carbon reduction. In the Low CE-High CI region, the carbon emissions brought by economic development fail to effectively improve per capita GDP. The Low CE-Low CI region contributes greatly to carbon emission reduction with technical advantages.