Long-Term and Decadal Sea-Level Trends of the Baltic Sea Using Along-Track Satellite Altimetry

Abstract

One of the main effects of climate change is rising sea levels, which presents challenges due to its geographically heterogenous nature. Often, contradictory results arise from examining different sources of measurement and time spans. This study addresses these issues by analysing both long-term (1995–2022) and decadal (2000–2009 and 2010–2019) sea-level trends in the Baltic Sea. Two independent sources of data, which consist of 13 tide gauge (TG) stations and multi-mission along-track satellite altimetry (SA), are utilized to calculate sea-level trends using the ordinary least-squares method. Given that the Baltic Sea is influenced by geographically varying vertical land motion (VLM), both relative sea level (RSL) and absolute sea level (ASL) trends were examined for the long-term assessment. The results for the long-term ASL show estimates for TG and SA to be 3.3 mm/yr and 3.9 mm/yr, respectively, indicating agreement between sources. Additionally, the comparison of long-term RSL ranges from −2 to 4.5 mm/yr, while ASL varies between 2 and 5.4 mm/yr, as expected due to the VLM. Spatial variation in long-term ASL trends is observed, with higher rates in the northern and eastern regions. Decadal sea-level trends show higher rates, particularly the decade 2000–2009. Comparison with other available sea-level datasets (gridded models) yields comparable results. Therefore, this study evaluates the ability of SA as a reliable source for determining reginal sea-level trends in comparison with TG data.