Analysis of the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Value of CO2 Emissions from Electricity Generation

Abstract

The study analyzed the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the carbon dioxide emissions from electricity generation. Additionally, monthly seasonality was taken into account. It was assumed (research hypothesis) that both the COVID-19 pandemic (expressed in individual waves of infection cases) and the month have a significant impact on CO2 emissions. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) and non-parametric Kruskal–Wallis tests were used to evaluate the significance of the influence of individual explanatory variables on the CO2 emission. The identification of the studied series (CO2 emission) was first made by means of a linear regression model with binary variables and then by the ARMAX model. The analysis shows that in the consecutive months and periods of the COVID-19 pandemic, CO2 emissions differ significantly. The highest increase in emissions was recorded for the second wave of the pandemic, as well as in January and February. This is due to the overlapping of both the increase in infections (favoring stays at home) and the winter season. It can be concluded that working plants, schools and factories had the same demand for electricity, but sources of increased consumption were people staying at home and in hospitals as a result of deteriorated health, isolation or quarantine.