Application of Multivariate Statistical Analysis in the Development of a Surrogate Water Quality Index (WQI) for South African Watersheds

Abstract

Water quality indices (WQIs) are customarily associated with heavy data input demand, making them more rigorous and bulky. Such burdensome attributes are too taxing, time-consuming, and command a significant amount of resources to implement, which discourages their application and directly influences water resource monitoring. It is then imperative to focus on developing compatible, simpler, and less-demanding WQI tools, but with equally matching computational ability. Surrogate models are the best fitting, conforming to the prescribed features and scope. Therefore, this study attempts to provide a surrogate WQI as an alternative water quality monitoring tool that requires fewer inputs, minimal effort, and marginal resources to function. Accordingly, multivariate statistical techniques which include principal component analysis (PCA), hierarchical clustering analysis (HCA) and multiple linear regression (MLR) are applied primarily to determine four proxy variables and establish relevant model coefficients. As a result, chlorophyll-a, electrical conductivity, pondus Hydrogenium and turbidity are the final four proxy variables retained. A vital feature of the proposed surrogate index is that the input parameters qualify for inclusion into remote monitoring systems; henceforth, the model can be applied in remote monitoring programs. Reflecting on the model validation results, the proposed surrogate WQI is considered scientifically stable, with a minimum magnitude of divergence from the ideal water quality values. More importantly, the model displayed a predictive pattern identical to the ideal graph, matching on both index scores and classification values. The established surrogate model is an important milestone with the potential of promoting water resource monitoring and assisting in capturing of spatial and temporal changes in South African river catchments. This paper aims at outlining the methods used in developing the surrogate water quality index and document the results achieved.